Kurzus nemzetközi vendég- és részidős hallgatóknak

Kar

Társadalomtudományi Kar

Szervezet

TÁTK Nemzetközi és Európai Tanulmányok Tanszék

Kód

IRM02

Cím

Foreign Policy Analysis

Tervezett félév

Tavaszi

Meghirdetve

2024/25/2

ECTS

3

Nyelv

en

Oktatás célja

This course is meant to familiarize students with theories of foreign policy analysis and strategies of foreign policy behavior. The course combines a variety of theoretical and empirical writings, allowing students to learn not just about the basics of foreign policy– what it is and how it can be analyzed –, but to employ the diverse toolkit of FPA to world political phenomena – both historical and contemporary. At the same time, the course cannot offer an overarching catalogue covering all possible theoretical paradigms. Instead, at the center of each class, there will be a concept, a theme, a theoretical approach, which will be practiced with the help of academic articles; for this, the instructor expects the active participation of the students, thus the course – although it is offered as a lecture – is primarily seminar-like. In the first half of the semester, we explore some classical approaches: we examine what “rationality” means in decision-making, what the different levels of analysis are; how psychology approaches decision-making, and how domestic and foreign policies interact with each other. Following this, we will discuss more recent results about the role of the media; about foreign-policy narratives and analogies; and we will also consider the morality of foreign policy-making. In the final weeks of the semester, students will introduce crucial aspects of FPA through case studies executed in groups.

Tantárgy tartalma

There are two possibilities to complete the course. The course appears in the program plan as a lecture, which means that attendance, per university regulations, is not mandatory and students are not required to do active tasks during the semester. Thus, every student has the option to choose the ‘lecture format’ in which case their performance is evaluated based on a final exam, which will have both written and oral components. (With only completing the written component, it would be possible to receive a grade of maximum 3. Those who wish a 4 or 5 will need to take the oral exam as well.) The exam will be based on the mandatory readings and the additional discussions of classes – but I will send out more information about it once we approach the end of the semester. However, there is also an option for everyone to have the ‘seminar format’: classes will be seminar-like, and in this case participation is needed throughout the semester (attendance sheets will be taken in each class). For those who attend the course as seminars, a grade will be offered based on their performance in the semester – if they accept that grade, they do not have to take the exam. (Of course, it is always a possible option to choose to take the exam if they are not satisfied with the offered grade. However, once one decides to take the exam, this will be the final grade and it is not possible to go back to the seminar grade depending on the result.) You can find below the specific requirements for those choosing the seminar format.

Számonkérés és értékelés

For those wishing to complete the course as seminar, the grade will come from three components – for a valid offered grade, all needs to be completed with a passing grade: short tests (30%): there will be 3 written short tests (~20 mins) at the beginning of three pre-announced classes. Tests will cover the readings and material discussed in previous classes. (In case of absence in one, there will be a possibility at the end of the semester to make up for the missed short test.) policy analysis paper (30%): there will be an at-home written task around the middle of the semester where students need to briefly (~2-3 pages) analyze and make recommendation about a given real or imaginary foreign policy situation. More details will be announced. group project (40%): Those who want to complete the course in seminar format should form 3-4 person groups and select a group project from the list below. (This is an indicative list of topics, groups can come up with their own ideas, but they need to consult with me about the topic.) In their presentation, groups should summarize a case study and an appropriate FPA approach. The project should be built on original research, but groups can ask suggestions from the instructor. Presentation timing will depend on the number of group projects, but in principle 3 groups should have time for presentation in each class (~20 mins of presentation, 10 mins discussion). Groups should also circulate a brief handout before their presentation. Active classroom participation can influence the grade in a positive way.

Irodalomjegyzék

1. Introduction (February 28) Plan of the semester, introduction to FPA. Recommended reading: Alden, Chris; Aran, Amnon. Foreign Policy Analysis: New Approaches, Routledge. pp. 1-19. 2017. (Chapter 1 Foreign Policy Analysis: An Overview) 2. What is rationality? What does it mean that a decision is rational? (March 7) Required readings: Schelling, Thomas C. “An essay on bargaining” (részlet) In: Schelling, Strategy of Conflict, Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1960, pp. 21-46. Boys, James D. “The unpredictability factor: Nixon, Trump and the application of the Madman Theory in US grand strategy,” Cambridge Review of International Affairs 34(3), pp. 430-451 3. Beyond rationality: Decisions of bureaucracies (March 14*) – THIS CLASS WILL BE RESCHEDULED Required readings: Allison, Graham T. “Conceptual models and the Cuban missile crisis.” The American Political Science Review 63 (3) (1969), pp. 689-718. Krasner, Stephen D. “Are Bureaucracies Important? (Or Allison Wonderland)” Foreign Policy no. 7 (1972), pp. 159-179. 4. Foreign policy instruments: Deterrence, compellence, sanctions (March 21*) – THIS CLASS WILL BE RESCHEDULED Required readings: Stein, Janice Gross. “Deterrence and Compellence in the Gulf, 1990-91: A Failed or Impossible Task?” International Security 17(2) (1992), pp. 147-179. Drezner, Daniel W. “Sanctions Sometimes Smart: Targeted Sanctions in Theory and Practice.” International Studies Review 13(1) (2011), pp. 96-108. 5. The role of the decision-maker: personality and psychological approaches (March 28) Required readings: Jervis, Robert. “The Drunkard’s Search.” In: Jervis, How Statesmen Think: The Psychology of International Politics. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2017, pp. 40-60. Dyson, Stephen Benedict. “Personality and Foreign Policy: Tony Blair’s Iraq Decisions,” Foreign Policy Analysis, 2 (2006), pp. 289–306. 6. Domestic constraints to foreign-policy decisions (April 4) Required readings: Putnam, Robert D. “Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two-Level Games.” International Organization 42(3) (1988), pp. 427-460. Brummer, Klaus and Cameron G. Thies. “The Contested Selection of National Role Conceptions.” Foreign Policy Analysis 11 (2015), pp. 273-293. 7. The role of the media in foreign policy (April 11) Required readings: Doucet, Lyse. "Syria and the CNN effect: What role does the media play in policy-making?" Daedalus 147(1) (2018), pp. 141-157. Duncombe, Constance. “Twitter and the challenges of digital diplomacy.” SAIS Review of International Affairs 38 (2) (2018), pp. 91-100. 8. Counterfactuals: what could have been? (April 18) Required reading: Lebow, Richard Ned. Forbidden Fruit: Counterfactuals and International Relations. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2010, chapters 2 (excerpt), 3. 9. The morality of the decision-maker (April 25) Required readings: Niebuhr, Reinhold. Moral Man and Immoral Society: A Study in Ethics and Politics. New York: Charles Scribner’s, 1932 (excerpts: chapters 4 and 10) Garrett, Stephen A. “Political Leadership and ‘Dirty Hands’: Winston Churchill and the City Bombing of Germany.” In: Ethics and statecraft: the moral dimension of international affairs, Cathal J. Nola (eds.), New York: Greenwood Press, 1995, pp. 29-45. 10. Metaphors, narratives, analogies (May 2) Required readings: Subotić, Jelena. “Narrative, Ontological Security and Foreign Policy Change.” Foreign Policy Analysis 12 (4) (2016), pp. 610-627. Paris, Roland. “Kosovo and the Metaphor War.” Political Science Quarterly 117 (3) (2002), pp. 423-450. 11-12-13. GROUP PROJECTS PRESENTATIONS (dates will be arranged) Pressure and influence: foreign-policy instruments and behaviors Sanctions and the isolation of North Korea/Iran (chosen case study) Commerce as a foreign-policy tool: Donald Trump’s trade war against China The Russia-Ukraine war Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine and Russia’s Ukraine policy NATO’s options and the Western response tot he war Other possible topics to choose Re-evaluation of Hiroshima (historical milestones and their consequences) The concept of “mission creep” and the infinite war on terror Withdrawal from Afghanistan: Joe Biden’s decision Will China invade Taiwan? Can we predict future decisions? Further (recommended) literature: Smith, Hadfield & Dunne, eds. Foreign Policy: Theories, Actors, Cases (3rd ed). Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2017. Hudson, Valérie M. Foreign Policy Analysis: Classic and Contemporary Theory (2nd ed). Lanham, Maryland: Rowman and Littlefield, 2014. Alden, Chris and Amnon Aran. Foreign Policy Analysis: New Approaches (2nd ed). London: Routledge, 2017. Mumford, Andrew. “Parallels, prescience and the past: Analogical reasoning and contemporary international politics,” International Politics 52 (2015), pp. 1-15. Sigal, Leon V. “Bureaucratic Politics & Tactical Use of Committees: The Interim Committee & the Decision to Drop the Atomic Bomb,” Polity, 10 (3) (1978), pp. 326-364

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